How much of a threat is Iran?

PBS presents two opposing positions in Judy Woodruff's interview with Newsweek editor Fareed Zakaria and Commentary magazine editor Norman Podhoretz:

NORMAN PODHORETZ, Foreign Policy Adviser, Rudy Giuliani: It seems to me that most people in the world, at least until recently, agreed that it would be catastrophic to allow the Iranians to develop a nuclear capability. The only debate was over what the best means to prevent this from happening might be.

Well, for over four years, diplomacy has been tried, first by the Europeans and then with some American participation, and all they've accomplished, these negotiations, is to buy the Iranians more time with which to move forward inexorably toward a nuclear capability.

The other hope has been vested in sanctions. And, of course, there have been two rounds of sanctions voted by the Security Council, neither of them very tough, because the Russians and the Chinese are opposed to really tough sanctions.

We've now unilaterally imposed, just the other day, a new round of sanctions involving the banks and the financial system. But as a good report in the Washington Post this morning indicates, most experts on Iran think that these are not going to bite sufficiently and certainly not going to make the Iranians change their behavior.

So that leaves us with only one terrible choice, which is either to bomb those facilities and retard their program or even cut it off altogether or allow them to go nuclear. And I agree with what Senator McCain has said in the past: The only thing worse than bombing Iran is to allow Iran to get the bomb.

And here is Zakaria's response:

FAREED ZAKARIA, Editor, Newsweek International: Well, there is a third choice, Judy, which is the choice we have used for pretty much every other country that has developed nuclear weapons, and that is deterrence.

We allowed Mao to get a nuclear weapon and have used deterrence against them, against the Chinese. We allowed the Russians, the Soviet Union to get nuclear weapons and used deterrence against them. We've allowed the North Koreans to get nuclear weapons and have used deterrence against them.

It used to be that one had to explain deterrence to the left; it has now become something the right does not understand. You know, Mao Zedong was a much more revolutionary figure than Ahmadinejad is. China was actively helping insurgencies all over the world that were anti-American, killing Americans in Vietnam, in Korea.

Mao spoke actively about his great desire to overturn the international system. He even talked about destroying half the world to allow communism to triumph. And yet, you know what? The desire for self-preservation meant that Mao Zedong was deterred. The Soviet Union was deterred. North Korea is being deterred.

We have a policy that we understand, which is containment plus deterrence. We're using sanctions. We're using a kind of anti-Iranian alliance mechanism in the Middle East, which has become quite successful, by the way. We have isolated Iran.

Time is not on their side; time is on our side. I think that the onus surely must be on the other side to explain to us why, because Iran might gain the knowledge to make nuclear weapons in the next three to five to eight years, we should launch a unilateral American invasion.

This would be the third invasion of a Muslim country that the United States would have undertaken in the last five years; that seems to me a pretty serious business. And we've seen deterrence work against all these other countries...

Let us even assume that Iran gets the bomb, and it's not clear that it will. Why are they more crazy than Kim Jong Il, a man who let two million of his own people starve in the last decade?

Here is how Podhoretz rebuts this argument:

NORMAN PODHORETZ: [T]he attitude expressed by Fareed Zakaria represents an irresponsible complacency that I think is comparable to the denial in the early '30s of the intentions of Hitler that led to what Churchill called an unnecessary war involving millions and millions of deaths that might have been averted if the West had acted early enough...

The reason deterrence can't work with Iran is that there's a different element involved here than was involved with either Mao or even Kim Jong Il or Stalin, and that is the element of religious fanaticism.

The fact of the matter is that, with a religious fanatic like Ahmadinejad and the "mullahcracy" ruling Iran generally, there's no assurance that self-preservation or the protection, preservation of the nation, will deter them.

And let me tell you why. Here is what the Ayatollah Khomeini, of whom Ahmadinejad is a devoted disciple, once said. He said: We do not worship Iran. We worship Allah, for patriotism is another name for paganism. I say let this land of Iran burn. I say let this land go up in smoke, provided Islam emerges triumphant in the rest of the world.

Well, you can't deter a nation that is led by people with that kind of attitude.

Here is Zakaria's rebuttal:

FAREED ZAKARIA: You know, I had a feeling Norman would bring up that one quotation that he's used before, so I have one from now. "If the worst came to worst and half of mankind died, the other half would remain, while imperialism would be razed from the ground." This is what Mao said.

And it wasn't just his words. It was his actions. He was actively aiding revolutionary movements and killing Americans all over the world.

So the question about Iran's rationality rests on this: They've been in power for 30 years. What have they done? Iran has followed a pretty rational, national interest-oriented foreign policy.

If you look at the way in which they opposed al-Qaida and the Taliban, this was another Islamic revolutionary movement. You'd think that they would find them sympathetic, but, no, they were the sworn enemies of al-Qaida and they helped the United States depose the Taliban.

... they've been fairly calculating, they have followed their national interest. When it has bumped up against the United States, they have worked against us. When they have thought that our interests were in common, as in Afghanistan, they've worked with us...

Look, if you look at the way in which the mullahs have run Iran, by and large they have been incredibly savvy. They're building up bank accounts in Dubai and in Switzerland. This does not strike me as the kind of ravings of, you know, an end of days millenarian.

The Iranians are trying to capture the core political high ground of the Middle East, and they're trying to become the dominant power in the region. We should be working against them; we should building an alliance against them.

But the idea that they are not going to be deterred by Israel's 200 nuclear weapons, including a second strike capacity on submarines, is just fantasy. It's based on plucking a few quotes here and there from a president who is not constitutionally or operationally in charge of the nuclear program.

As to whether these men think the Bush administration will bomb Iran before leaving office, this is what they had to say:

NORMAN PODHORETZ: ...if we allow Iran to get the bomb, people 50 years from now will look back at us the way we look back at the men who made the Munich pact with Hitler in 1938 and say, "How could they have let this happen?"

Well, unlike Fareed Zakaria and the foreign policy establishment that is complacent and irresponsible, in my opinion, I think the president recognizes the danger. I think he knows that time is short, that time is not on our side. And I think he will take military action, not an invasion, but air strikes before he leaves office.

And on the other side:

FAREED ZAKARIA: Oh, I would doubt it. Look, in the early 1980s, Norman Podhoretz and the neoconservatives believed the Soviet Union was going to take over the world and Finlandize Europe. When Reagan started talking to the Soviets, started talking to Gorbachev, Mr. Podhoretz excoriated him, called it the "Reagan road to detente" and such.

It turned out he was wrong. It turned out that the Soviets were not that powerful, and that history was on our side, and that things were going to work out as long as we kept our cool.

I believe in just the way that we have deterred the Soviet Union, Mao's China, Kim Jong Il, history will prove that we can use deterrence and containment to contain the problem of Iran and that we do not need to launch a third unilateral invasion just to do that.

Jihadists and extremists soon wear out their welcome everywhere they go

Even in Afghanistan and Pakistan or so Jamestown reports in the latest issue of Terrorism Focus.

A “MODERATE” TALIBAN EMERGES IN AFGHANISTAN’S HELMAND PROVINCE

Reports are emerging from the Taliban-held Musa Qala District of Afghanistan’s Helmand Province of changes in the style of Taliban rule there. While the provincial governor continues to refer to Musa Qala as a “nest of terrorists,” Taliban administrators in the area appear to have adopted a more moderate approach, perhaps in anticipation of being included in the peace talks with the government of Hamid Kharzai. The Taliban now inform locals of the “Islamic” prohibitions on music and shaving of beards but take no action against those who ignore them. A local Taliban FM radio station called “Shari’a Radio” has begun broadcasting Islamic messages mixed with Tarana, a classical vocal music. The Taliban are also reported to have established security in the area. (Pajhwok Afghan News, October 25). The Taliban occupied Musa Qala in February 2007, after a controversial deal was reached in October 2006 for an evacuation of the area by British forces in exchange for a pledge by local elders that they would continue to resist the Taliban.

JIHADIST PRESENCE RESISTED IN NORTHWEST PAKISTAN

There are signs that Central Asian jihadists of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) have worn out their welcome in the North Waziristan district of Pakistan. The militants have lived in the region since 2001, when they were forced out of their bases in Afghanistan by a US/Northern Alliance offensive. A highly effective guerrilla force in the late 1990s, the typically well-trained and well-armed IMU operated in several Central Asian republics. Since the loss of their military commander Juma Namangani in 2001, the IMU has been effectively trapped in Waziristan, where they have developed close ties to the Taliban and al-Qaeda. The large numbers of Russian speakers in the IMU are often mistakenly identified as “Chechens.” Believing the group responsible for a series of murders in the region, local tribesmen are calling for the IMU to leave the area; armed action is threatened if they fail to comply (Daily Times, October 23). In the Mohmand Agency of Pakistan’s North-West Frontier, five militias have united to form a new organization dedicated to eliminating gangs carrying out criminal activities in the name of the Taliban. Operations of the Tehrik-i-Islami will be governed by a 16-member council (Dawn, October 23).

Madrid train bombers' verdicts

From the Associated Press:

Spain's National Court convicted the three main suspects in the Madrid commuter train bombings of mass murder Wednesday and sentenced them to tens of thousands of years in prison for Europe's worst Islamic terror attack.

But the verdict was a mixed bag for prosecutors, who saw four other key defendants convicted of lesser offenses and an accused ringleader acquitted altogether.

With much of the case resting on circumstantial evidence, the three judges may have been wary after a number of high-profile Spanish terror cases were overturned on appeal.

As the AP report continues:

Three lead suspects — Jamal Zougam and Othman Gnaoui of Morocco and Emilio Suarez Trashorras of Spain — were convicted of murder and attempted murder and received prison sentences ranging from 34,000 to 43,000 years. Under Spanish law, the most they will spend in jail is 40 years. Spain has no death penalty or life imprisonment.

Zougam was convicted of placing at least one bomb on a train and Gnaoui of being a right-hand man of the plot's operational chief. Trashorras, who once worked as a miner, was found guilty of supplying the explosives used in the bombs.

One of the biggest surprises was the acquittal of Rabei Osman, an Egyptian already convicted and jailed in Italy for the Madrid bombings.

Italian authorities said Osman bragged in tapped Arabic-language phone conversations that he was the brains behind the Madrid plot. But translations of the taped conversations by two sets of Spanish translators indicated his comments were more nuanced and did not amount to a confession.

The Spanish verdict came just two days after an Italian appeals court upheld Osman's conviction there, but shaved two years off his prison term, sentencing him to eight years.

Regarding the other "top suspects" in the bombings, as the AP calls them:

Youssef Belhadj, Hassan el Haski, Abdulmajid Bouchar and Rafa Zouhier — were acquitted of murder but convicted of other charges that included belonging to a terrorist organization. They received sentences of 10 to 18 years in prison.

Fourteen other defendants were found guilty of lesser crimes and six others were acquitted.

As the report noted:

Much of the evidence in the 57-session, five-month trial was circumstantial. Bouchar, for instance, was seen on one of the bombed trains shortly before the attack, but at trial no one could definitively identify him and there were no fingerprints or other forensic evidence placing him at the scene.

A senior court official privy to the decision-making told The Associated Press after the verdict that the case against Osman was "flimsy," and that there was "no hard evidence" that Belhadj or Haski were masterminds. The official agreed to discuss the verdict only if not quoted by name.

Circumstantial evidence is admissible in Spanish trials. But the judges may have avoided relying heavily upon it because of a number of high-profile terror cases that were overturned on appeal, including one involving a Spanish cell accused of involvement in the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the U.S., said Fernando Reinares, until recently chief counterterrorism adviser at the Interior Ministry.

He said Spain will have to change the rules of evidence if it is to defeat extremist groups. "Islamic terrorism ... leaves a different kind of footprint" than traditional crimes, said Reinares, now head of terrorism studies at the Elcano Royal Institute, a Madrid think tank.

If some of the victims' relatives were disappointed by the verdicts, perhaps they can take comfort in this:

[T]he seven men considered the true ringleaders of the 2004 attack were not in the dock. They blew themselves up at an apartment on the outskirts of Madrid as police moved in to arrest them three weeks after the bombings

Three other men are still fugitives, though two are suspected of having killed themselves in suicide attacks against U.S.-led forces in Iraq.

So these Madrid bombers turn out to be "Iraqi" insurgents? Maybe this third "true ringleader" still on the lam is now an "Afghan" insurgent.

A Muslim perspective on Khalid Sheikh Mohammad

Khaled Sheikh Mohammad by Abdul Arts,
the Somali refugee cartoonist now in Egypt.

Otherwise known as KSM, the confessed mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, beheader of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl, Bali bombing planner, and the brains behind Richard Reid's shoe-bombing attempt. He and his nephew, 1993 lead World Trade Center bomber Ramzi Yousef, also unsuccessfully tried to blow up a dozen transPacific jetliners in midair in the mid-1990s. As Abdul himself said in the email in which he sent me this image, "I wish him to go to hell."

While this portrait is worth at least a thousand words, I'll can't help but add one sentence myself. The message here is that KSM is not Abdul Art's idea of the person who should be representing Islam.

Somali refugee

By Somali refugee cartoonist Abdul Arts, now living in Egypt. If you search my blog, you can see more of his work.

I post this picture from Delhi, from my mother-in-law's house, built on land she won in a lottery for Pakistani refugees of the Partition of India into two states - one a Muslim state, Pakistan, and the other, for people of all religions.

Wonder why we're seeing suicide bombings in Afghanistan?

Probably because foreign jihadists are joining the "insurgency." The New York Times reports about a would-be suicide bomber from Siberia of all places:

Afghan and American officials say the Siberian intended to be a suicide bomber, one of several hundred foreign militants who have gravitated to the region to fight alongside the Taliban this year, the largest influx since 2001.

The foreign fighters are not only bolstering the ranks of the insurgency. They are more violent, uncontrollable and extreme than even their locally bred allies, officials on both sides of the Afghan-Pakistan border warn.

They are also helping to change the face of the Taliban from a movement of hard-line Afghan religious students into a loose network that now includes a growing number of foreign militants as well as disgruntled Afghans and drug traffickers.

Foreign fighters are coming from Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Chechnya, various Arab countries and perhaps also Turkey and western China, Afghan and American officials say.

While this might be worrisome, to me it appears that these foreigners are already sowing the seeds of their own destruction:

“We’ve seen an unprecedented level of reports of foreign-fighter involvement,” said Maj. Gen. Bernard S. Champoux, deputy commander for security of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force. “They’ll threaten people if they don’t provide meals and support.”

But as the Times report continues:

Gauging the exact number of Taliban and foreign fighters in Afghanistan is difficult, Western officials and analysts say. At any given time, the Taliban can field up to 10,000 fighters, they said, but only 2,000 to 3,000 are highly motivated, full-time insurgents.

The rest are part-time fighters, young Afghan men who have been alienated by government corruption, who are angry at civilian deaths caused by American bombing raids, or who are simply in search of cash, they said. Five to 10 percent of full-time insurgents — roughly 100 to 300 combatants — are believed to be foreigners.

Here's another interesting observation:

Western officials said the foreigners are also increasingly financing younger Taliban leaders in Pakistan’s tribal areas who have closer ties to Al Qaeda, like Sirajuddin Haqqani and Anwar ul-Haq Mujahed. The influence of older, more traditional Taliban leaders based in Quetta, Pakistan, is diminishing.

“We see more and more resources going to their fellow travelers,” said Christopher Alexander, the deputy special representative for the United Nations in Afghanistan. “The new Taliban commanders are younger and younger.”

In the southern provinces of Oruzgan, Kandahar and Helmand, Afghan villagers recently described two distinct groups of Taliban fighters. They said “local Taliban” allowed some development projects. But “foreign Taliban” — usually from Pakistan — threatened to kill anyone who cooperated with the Afghan government or foreign aid groups.

Hanif Atmar, the Afghan education minister, said threats from foreign Taliban have closed 40 percent of the schools in southern Afghanistan. He said many local Taliban oppose the practice, but foreign Taliban use brutality and cash to their benefit.

I predict Afghans - even local Taliban - aren't going to put up with these foreign fighters for long. As word spreads of their misdeeds the locals will turn against them - it happened in Iraq and it will happen here too.

The latest from Al Qaeda

According to Al Jazeera, the latest Bin Laden tape suggesting that al Qaeda in Iraq has created a mess for itself is causing at least a few Qaeda types to want to attack the messenger - that is, Al Jazeera:

Al-Qaida sympathizers have unleashed a torrent of anger against Al- Jazeera television, accusing it of misrepresenting Osama bin Laden's latest audiotape by airing excerpts in which he criticizes mistakes by insurgents in Iraq.

Users of a leading Islamic militant Web forum posted thousands of insults against the pan-Arab station for focusing on excerpts in which bin Laden criticizes insurgents, including his followers.

Analysts said the reaction highlighted militants' surprise at bin Laden's words, and their dismay at the deep divisions among al-Qaida and other Iraqi militants that he appeared to be trying to heal.

"It's not about Al-Jazeera, it's about their shock from bin Laden," said Diaa Rashwan, an Egyptian expert on Islamic militant groups. "For the first time, bin Laden, who used to be the spiritual leader who gives guidance, became a critic of al-Qaida and is confessing mistakes. This is unusual."

If it is true that Bin Laden has gotten checked by reality, I predict his followers will soon follow. Because anyone who follows Bin Laden is by nature a slavish follower. These are, after all, people who could be convinced that blowing up other Muslims in mosques and in markets was somehow a good thing in line with the teachings of Islam.

As to this first reaction to being admonished - this torrent of fury directed at Al Jazeera - this could have predicted by anyone with any experience with children.

Saudi Arabia gets serious about correcting the knowledge gap

The New York Times reports:

On a marshy peninsula 50 miles from this Red Sea port, King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is staking $12.5 billion on a gargantuan bid to catch up with the West in science and technology.

As the Times goes on to say, this graduate research center will have one of the 10 largest endowments in the world.

The Times report continues:

Its planners say men and women will study side by side in an enclave walled off from the rest of Saudi society, the country’s notorious religious police will be barred and all religious and ethnic groups will be welcome in a push for academic freedom and international collaboration sure to test the kingdom’s cultural and religious limits.

To accomplish this, as the Times notes, the Saudi king put Saudi Aramco its oil company in charge as opposed to the Education Ministry which would have opposed such integration and openness on religious grounds. As the Times continues:

The king has broken taboos, declaring that the Arabs have fallen critically behind much of the modern world in intellectual achievement and that his country depends too much on oil and not enough on creating wealth through innovation.

“There is a deep knowledge gap separating the Arab and Islamic nations from the process and progress of contemporary global civilization,” said Abdallah S. Jumah, the chief executive of Saudi Aramco. “We are no longer keeping pace with the advances of our era.”. . .

The king is lavishing the institution not only with money, but also with his full political endorsement, intended to stave off internal challenges from conservatives and to win over foreign scholars who doubt that academic freedom can thrive here.

While the Times report had plenty of skepticism, there was also some cautious optimism:

“Because Aramco is founding the university, I believe it will have freedom,” said Abdulmalik A. Aljinaidi, dean of the research and consultation institute at King Abdulaziz University, Jidda’s biggest, with more than 40,000 students. “For Kaust to succeed, it will have to be free of all the restrictions and bureaucracy we face as a public university.”. . .

Suhair el-Qurashi, dean of the private all-female Dar Al Hekma College, often attacked as “bad” and “liberal,” said a vigorous example of free-thinking at the university would embolden the many Saudis who back the king’s quest to reform long-stagnant higher education.

“The king knows he will face some backlash and bad publicity,” Ms. Qurashi said. “I think the system is moving in the right direction.”

Here's a wartime story about betrayal and redemption

And the reality we all share - that humans will make mistakes or twist facts to aggrandize themselves or promote an agenda. But more importantly, it's about why we should give people who want one a second chance to redeem themselves.

From Michael Yon, the blogger who braves Iraq and other war zones free of editors and bosses of any sort. Beauchamp and The Rule of Second Chances: Pass it Along.

Some months ago, a soldier in Baghdad wrote a piece on the way war can degrade the morals and affect the judgment of combat soldiers. His story was published at face-value in The New Republic magazine. In it the soldier wrote terrible things about his unit, making the article sensational.

I was in Iraq when it first hit the stands and someone asked me about the plausibility of the events described in the article. I skimmed the story but it did not even pass a simple sniff-test. With a shooting war going on, there is no time for trivial pursuits, so my only comment was something like, “It sounds like a bunch of garbage.” Turned out it was. . .

Beauchamp is young; under pressure he made a dumb mistake. In fact, he has not always been an ideal soldier. But to his credit, the young soldier decided to stay, and he is serving tonight in a dangerous part of Baghdad. He might well be seriously injured or killed here, and he knows it. He could have quit, but he did not. He faced his peers. I can only imagine the cold shoulders, and worse, he must have gotten. He could have left the unit, but LTC Glaze told me that Beauchamp wanted to stay and make it right. Whatever price he has to pay, he is paying it.

A new must-read source on Afghanistan

This blog's very own occasional Afghan correspondent Rahmani Rahmani just launched a great new magazine, Kabul Direct. Here's what he says in his intro email:

Dear Friend of Afghanistan (and to our foes too, should we still have any left!)

Attached please find the first edition of Kabul Direct, the first English-language journal produced by Afghans in Afghanistan .

In this introductory issue, we have three exclusive in-depth interviews with:

* The former Taliban foreign minister and personal spokesman for Mullah Omar;
* The first elected leader of Afghanistan 's other leading insurgent party, Hizbe-Islami; and,
* Afghanistan's own Al Qaeda expert and former official in the Taliban's foreign ministry

Find out why all of these close observers and former associates of the insurgents in Afghanistan believe that peace negotiations will succeed and should have started yesterday. Also learn why they think Afghanistan will never dissolve into a sectarian conflict like Iraq has.

We also bring you news analysis of the fragile situation in the north and the risk the increasing insecurity there poses to Kabul - and all of Afghanistan 's allies.

We feel this is one news analysis publication you cannot afford to miss.

We at Kabul Direct are bringing you the news straight from Afghanistan as only locals can.

Thank you for your interest in Afghanistan , our beloved country, and for your support.

And please help us in our effort by subscribing!

Sincerely,

Rahmani Rahmani, Editor-in-Chief

Kabuldirect@gmail.com

Free Introductory issue of Kabul Direct .pdf
378K View as HTML Download

I've read his interviews - I even helped with some copyediting - and he's right, they are very interesting.

On the cover page, he explains why there's a need for another news source on Afghanistan:

We are publishing this new journal because we want to show you, the reader, military and security personnel, policy makers, journalists, and scholars our perspective from here on the ground in Afghanistan as we build our nation out of the ruins of decades of war.

As he goes on to say:

We at Kabul Direct are dedicated to the establishment of political rights and civil liberties in Afghanistan, the country that we, the sons and daughters of this nation, love.

We want accountable government, to be treated equally and fairly under the law, to be able to speak our minds, believe what we believe, and organize ourselves in ways we think will move us forward as a nation in which we can take pride.

We also want to participate as full equals in the modern world. But at the same time we don't want to lose the traditions and values that we as Afghans hold dear.

Regretfully, he says, a focus of Kabul Direct has to be on terrorism and extremism. As Rahmani writes:

Unfortunately, at this point in time, we have to cover these topics because these are the problems that plague our nation.

But God willing, over time, we will be able shift our focus to cover more positive news. We at Kabul Direct live for the day when we can instead talk about the myriad investment opportunities here in Afghanistan, share the pride we take in our rich cultural and religious heritage, and give you an idea of the contributions we Afghans should be making to the world's progress.

And as he finishes:

We started Kabul Direct during the holiest time of year, the month of Ramadan, when we Muslims fast, hoping that this will help us win our struggle against sin. We started Kabul Direct at this time because we see this endeavor as an extension of this good struggle. And we also hope that by beginning this venture at this auspicious time of year, that our efforts will be especially blessed.

And so welcome to Kabul Direct, your window into the heart and soul of Afghanistan.

And welcome to you too, Kabul Direct. May your efforts be rewarded. Support this effort!

Fantastic news if true

The Washington Post reports:

The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq...

There is widespread agreement that AQI has suffered major blows over the past three months. Among the indicators cited is a sharp drop in suicide bombings, the group's signature attack, from more than 60 in January to around 30 a month since July. Captures and interrogations of AQI leaders over the summer had what a senior military intelligence official called a "cascade effect," leading to other killings and captures. The flow of foreign fighters through Syria into Iraq has also diminished, although officials are unsure of the reason and are concerned that the broader al-Qaeda network may be diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and elsewhere.

The deployment of more U.S. and Iraqi forces into AQI strongholds in Anbar province and the Baghdad area, as well as the recruitment of Sunni tribal fighters to combat AQI operatives in those locations, has helped to deprive the militants of a secure base of operations, U.S. military officials said...

Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, head of the Joint Special Operations Command's operations in Iraq, is the chief promoter of a victory declaration and believes that AQI has been all but eliminated, the military intelligence official said. But Adm. William J. Fallon, the chief of U.S. Central Command, which oversees Iraq and the rest of the Middle East, is urging restraint, the official said. The military intelligence official, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity about Iraq assessments and strategy...

Right now, said another U.S. official, who declined even to be identified by the agency he works for, the data are "insufficient and difficult to measure."

"AQI is definitely taking some hits," the official said. "There is definite progress, and that is undeniable good news. But what we don't know is how long it will last . . . and whether it's sustainable. . . . They have withstood withering pressure for a long period of time." Three months, he said, is not long enough to consider a trend sustainable.

Even the Washington Post says "The evidence of a drop in violence in Iraq is becoming hard to dispute"

In the Post's editorial today:

A congressional study and several news stories in September questioned reports by the U.S. military that casualties were down. Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), challenging the testimony of Gen. David H. Petraeus, asserted that "civilian deaths have risen" during this year's surge of American forces.

A month later, there isn't much room for such debate, at least about the latest figures. In September, Iraqi civilian deaths were down 52 percent from August and 77 percent from September 2006, according to the Web site icasualties.org. The Iraqi Health Ministry and the Associated Press reported similar results. U.S. soldiers killed in action numbered 43 -- down 43 percent from August and 64 percent from May, which had the highest monthly figure so far this year. The American combat death total was the lowest since July 2006 and was one of the five lowest monthly counts since the insurgency in Iraq took off in April 2004.

During the first 12 days of October the death rates of Iraqis and Americans fell still further. So far during the Muslim month of Ramadan, which began Sept. 13 and ends this weekend, 36 U.S. soldiers have been reported as killed in hostile actions. That is remarkable given that the surge has deployed more American troops in more dangerous places and that in the past al-Qaeda has staged major offensives during Ramadan. Last year, at least 97 American troops died in combat during Ramadan. Al-Qaeda tried to step up attacks this year, U.S. commanders say -- so far, with stunningly little success.

As the Post goes on to caution:

The trend could change quickly and tragically, of course. Casualties have dropped in the past for a few weeks only to spike again. There are, however, plausible reasons for a decrease in violence. Sunni tribes in Anbar province that once fueled the insurgency have switched sides and declared war on al-Qaeda. The radical Shiite leader Moqtada al-Sadr ordered a cease-fire last month by his Mahdi Army. Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the top day-to-day commander in Iraq, says al-Qaeda's sanctuaries have been reduced 60 to 70 percent by the surge.

As the editors conclude:

Nevertheless, it's looking more and more as though those in and outside of Congress who last month were assailing Gen. Petraeus's credibility and insisting that there was no letup in Iraq's bloodshed were -- to put it simply -- wrong.

Here's something we should all celebrate about this Eid

From the Associated Press, dateline October 13, "Iraq Sees Dramatically Low Death Total:

The civilian death toll in Iraq fell to its lowest level in recent memory Saturday, with only four people killed or found dead nationwide, according to reports from police, morgue officials and credible witnesses.
Saturday marked the beginning of the Eid al-Fitr feast for Shiites, the three-day capstone closing out the Ramadan month of fasting. Sunnis began celebrating the holiday on Sunday.

The daily number of civilians killed, not including those on days when there were massive casualties from car bombs, had climbed above 100 at the end of last year and the beginning of 2007.

Saturday's decline in deaths was in line with a sharp drop in September of both Iraqi civilian and U.S. military fatalities.

The four dead included three death squad victims found in Baghdad and the bodyguard of the Kirkuk police commander who was killed in a roadside bombing.

Abdul Arts writes from Egypt

Sharon

Here is a cartoon that shows a terrorist killed by the white crescent of the green flag of Islam....because I wish the terrorists and jihadists to go to hell.

I want to show that the moderate Muslim majority rejects terrorism. Jihadists plan to kill all believers in the world - Christians, Jews, and others. We real Muslims believe in the solidarity of all humans and wish for peace.

I can't talk about what is going on in my own country, Somali, because of these maniacs. Just this week some Somali jihadists from a group called Hizbul Shabaab (Alshabab Group) sent me a threatening email because I published a cartoon about suicide terrorism.

The jihadists threaten all people of good faith. As I said, I wish they would go to hell.

Eid Mubarak,

Abdul

From me to all of you who are celebrating

Thanks to Abdul Arts, the Somali cartoonist in Egypt, for making this for me. May God reward your piety.

The face of a unified Iraq

Imagine what Iraq could look like were the sects to lay down arms. Our Somali cartoonist in Egypt, Abdul Arts, did just that - rather, he imagined what a unified Iraqi would look like. The slight green pallor on the face is a reflection of the Iraqi flag. Looks like a nice guy.

Interview with a Pakistani photographer

The photographer, Kamran Safdar.

1. Who are you?

My name is Kamran Safdar and I am from Taxila, a little town near Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan. Taxila is famous for its Buddhist history and ancient ruins, and is on the United Nations' World Heritage List. Otherwise it is a dusty little town where people go to bed at eight and the entire city is dark by nine.

Ancient ruins, Taxila.

2. Why do you take the pictures you do?

Taking picture is just a hobby, I started to travel and hike to the northern mountainous areas of Pakistan back in 1999 and the usual vacation shots eventually became a serious passion.

3. What is your day job then? I have to say, your photos are so exquisite, you write so well, and you have such a distinct vision, that it is hard to believe you have not been discovered yet by the magazine world.

I work as an IT professional at a University in Taxila where I mainly teach software programming to mechanical engineers.

In my spare time I love to write poetry, paint, and study any book I can get my hands on that isn't related to IT.

4. Are you a local or a stranger to the people you photograph?

While I am a Pakistani, I don't have to travel far to find myself in an entirely different culture. Pakistan is very diverse that way, language and customs can change very quickly in this part of the world. So, again, I don't have to venture very far geographically to find myself in completely unfamiliar territory.

Swati brothers.

5. Did you have to discover all these beautiful places on your own or did you always know about them?

Before 1999 I didn't know very much about the rest of the Pakistan, and especially the mountainous regions. But after I discovered the Kaghan Valley in the lower Himalayas, I started reading everything I could find about travel in Pakistan and by now I've visited quite a few places, especially in the mountains. In addition to the travel guides, I also ask the locals for their recommendations. I have to say, they've pointed me to some exquisite places that weren't in the guide books.

6. Tell us about some of your favorite areas and subjects?

My favorite place in Pakistan is the Chitral Valley - because of its physical beauty and the hospitality and friendliness of the people who live there. I love going back there and I have many cherished memories from my visits there.

This is an area right next to Afghanistan, in the northwest of Pakistan. The people who live there are strict Muslims but they would never harm anyone and a stranger is a guest in their land. I have spent many a night in the homes of locals who, though I was a total stranger to them, still were happy to open up their home and hospitality to me.

I am always keen to learn about the culture of the areas I travel to, and my special interest is women and children. It is especially challenging to photograph them as while many may not cover their face, they still don't like the idea of being photographed by a stranger, and especially a man. I think I'm fascinated by the women because their lives are the most hidden part of these cultures.

Children are another important subject to me. I like to find out as much as I can about their lives - whether they have access to medical facilities, where they go to school, if the girls go to school as well, how many miles they have to walk to get to school, and how hard it is for them during the winter, once the snow falls. In the mountains, life is pretty hard in the winter.

A Swati girl.

Nomad boy, Swat.

7. Have you traveled there in winter as well yet?

I have not traveled to the north in the winters mainly because I get vacations in the summer and the roads and treks are all closed. Some parts are cut off from rest of the country for the entire winter season. The only way in and out is to fly in on Fokker planes which are always overbooked. But even during summer, the north is quite cold by my standard.

8. I'm sure you've read all the reports about Al Qaeda hiding in the frontier areas of Pakistan. Can you square these reports with your experience?

I have traveled throughout much of the north and northwestern areas of Pakistan but I avoid the tribal areas that are said to be hostile to strangers. These are the areas where Al Qaida is said to have taken refuge and where the Taliban get their local support and recruits. This is the area called Waziristan, which is the strip closest to Afghanistan. Before the rise of the Taliban and Al Qaida, the tribes in this area operated smuggling rings and other criminal enterprises. Even during the British Raj, the English found they couldn't control these areas, so they too avoided going there.

9. What about the school girls in Swat Valley who are reportedly being menaced by the Taliban? What are the parents doing to protect them?

I'm surprised that Swat is facing this kind of menace as it has long been a tourist paradise. It was once a hippie paradise filled with foreigners. Today, it is a favorite spot for Pakistanis because of the pleasant weather and beautiful landscape. There are hotels everywhere in the valley and every kind of tourist facility you would expect.

An idea of the terrain.

Honestly, I have not heard any reports of any girls' schools being menaced there but if this did happen, it must have been in the Waziristan region. There I understand people are forced to keep beard and such.

10. Here is a link to a UN report on what girls are reportedly being forced to endure in Swat: www.worldpress.org/Asia/2822.cfm. Does it ring true to you?

Yes, it does, I'm sorry to say. Notice that the report says that the girls schools are being attacked in the Malakand Agency. The term Agency means that this is a tribal area, which means an area over which the government has little control.

Waziristan, the Malakand Agency, and the tribal strip are located in the dark green area.
Chitral is located in the pink region. Taxila, where Kamran lives, is marked by a T.

11. So is Islamic extremism widespread in these frontier areas?

Yes and no. It is true that in some really backward areas, people have little understanding of Islam in that they have no clue it is actually a religion of peace, and has nothing to do with imposing religion or practices on others.

But the majority of Pakistanis are so far removed from the Taliban and cannot be considered extremists by any stretch of the imagination. So we need to understand that when we hear of Al Qaida or extremists in Pakistan, they are not everywhere but only in particular tribal places.

12. So what to do about the extremism?

The factors that contribute to extremism, I believe, are multinational as well as local. Pakistan and Pakistanis by themselves cannot eradicate extremism.

The roots of extremism are somewhere in Afganistan. Then you have to find where the funds come from. What decades of jihad in Afghanistan created will take time to cleanup.

The war against terrorism has severely and negatively impacted Pakistan. Being next door to Al Qaeda has meant that Pakistanis have too often been an easy target of Al Qaida's vengeance.

As long as the Taliban are able to operate in Afghanistan, Afghan mujahidin will continue to infiltrate Pakistan's tribal areas, and will have influence over a small segment of our population. This is because, simply put, the Pakistani tribals see the Taliban as Mujahidin, or Islam's holy warriors, protectors of the faith.

Tribal areas like Waziristan have always been semi-independent from the central government. This means that they can only be loosely monitored, as all local issues are handled by tribal elders and their Jirga (Council) . Also the tribes don't recognize that there is a border with Afghanistan as this border divides their historical land and it's always been entirely routine for them to come and go as they please.

Their remoteness means they haven't had much interaction with the modern world. They don't have many schools, medical facilities, or roads in these areas. They still live pretty much as they did 100 years ago. As I said earlier, even the British Raj gave up trying to control these areas. The Pakistani government hasn't been able to govern them either, not really.

The tribals truly believe they are following Islam and they will protect the extremist Taliban mujahideen as their guests because this is their tribal code of honor. In the past few months, the Pakistani Army initiated several military attacks in the region, but they haven't made much progress and the cost in lives has been high. These areas are very similar to the tribal areas in Afghanistan. I'm sure I don't need to point out that in six years, the U.S. has been unable to eradicate Al Qaida and the Taliban in these same types of areas in Afghanistan.

I believe the end of extremism and militancy will come with development - in Afghanistan and the tribal strip of Pakistan. The construction of roads, schools, modern medical facilities, clean water systems, electricity, etc. are what is needed to change the mentality of these people. They will appreciate the modern facilities, they will send their youth to the cities for higher education and to work, and when the youth then return, they themselves will bring the necessary changes that will modify the extremist and intolerant mindset.

I can see that this is what happened in the Swat and Kalash Valleys. It was a pleasant surprise for me to discover a little shop in a tiny village in Swat where I could access a computer and the Internet when I needed to download pictures from my camera. I was even more amazed when the shopkeeper began telling me how much time he spends on the Internet himself, downloading songs, etc. He also spoke about his many visits to Lahore and other cities. You see things can change and modernize, but with development and not military operations and these changes can't happen overnight.

I saw something similar among the Kalasha people, who are supposedly decedents of Alexander the Great's army, who still follow a centuries old religion and tradition. Today they all have access to modern health clinics, schools, roads, clean water, thanks to the efforts of many local and foreign NGOs who work for the social uplift of the region. The girls in this area not only speak their own language, but also Urdu, our national language, and now they study English, too. The head of the Kalasha tribe is a woman, Lakshan Bebe, who was educated abroad. Many of the Kalasha boys go to Karachi and other cities for their higher education and when they return, they do so having with a new and modern point of view.

So I strongly believe that development is the key to ending extremism.

13. What do you wish Americans or Westerners in general understood about Pakistan?

First I wish they understood that the vast majority of Pakistan is safe and that the vast majority of Pakistani people are both friendly and hospitable, that they are not at all intolerant, and have nothing against Americans or Westerners. Again, the vast majority of Pakistanis are not fanatic Muslims and they are nothing like the Afghan Taliban.

There seems to be to be a constant stream of media disinformation that makes Pakistan look like a pro-Taliban state which it most definitely is not.

Taxila school kids.

14. Any comments about Pakistan's upcoming elections?

Pakistan was founded as a democratic republic and Pakistanis have always struggled against military rule and dictatorship. In the previous election, two major political parties had their leadership expelled which paved the way for the religious parties to win more seats than they would have otherwise.

General Musharaf has had eight years now to prove himself. There has been little economic growth, and he has used the issues of terrorism and extremism as excuses to stay in power.

He allied himself with the US in the fight against terrorism only to sustain his military rule. How ironic is it that for past five years, the military regime while purporting to be enlightened and moderate, has governed the country by soliciting help from the mullahs? Musharaf has never seriously tried to uproot the extremists from their hub. The reason for this? He needs them as his excuse to stay in power.

Pakistanis are still hopeful that the upcoming election will restore democracy in Pakistan, that we will have mainstream political leaders back in the country, and that finally we can be governed by elected representatives.

Thank you for sharing your thoughts here. Really, your work is fantastic.

Iraq will survive!

Thus spoke the Somali cartoonist in Egypt. I think he's right.

Saudi Grand Mufti: Saudis should not enlist in foreign jihads

From Reuters via Asharq Alawsat:

Saudi Arabia's leading cleric said on Monday Saudis should not join jihad outside the kingdom, in a warning over Saudis going to fight U.S.-led forces in Iraq.

As the report continued:

"Our youth have become a commodity bought and sold by (Middle) Eastern and Western agencies ... they became tools carrying out heinous acts," Grand Mufti Sheikh Abdel-Aziz Al al-Sheikh said in a religious edict, or fatwa, published on the official SPA news agency.

So why now is the Sheikh saying this only now?

"I decided to say this after it was clear that over several years Saudis have been leaving for jihad. They did this because they are passionate about their religion but they are not wise enough to know right from wrong," he said.

While Reuters took the occasion impugn the Sheikh's motives for issuing the statement:

Saudi Arabia has been embarrassed by the idea that Saudis have become fodder for suicide bomb attacks against civilians in Iraq and fear that militants could return to Saudi Arabia to wage their jihad against the Saudi government.

Tariq Alhomayed, an editor at Asharq Alawsat gave the Sheikh considerably more credit:

Sheikh Abdulaziz had previously warned of the danger of corrupting our youth....prior to September 11, the Mufti issued a fatwa banning suicide operations, which caused a huge uproar....

The Mufti’s fatwa stated things as they are, it was neither slanted nor hesitant; however most importantly, it hit on an important nerve in terrorist operations; its funding. The sheikh explicitly said, “I advise caution to those with financial means so that their money does not end up harming Muslims.” This is particularly more pronounced because it coincides with the time of giving Zakat [during the month of Ramadan], and scores have been deceived into financially backing the merchants of death and destruction...

Saudi’s Mufti was never one to propagate such [terrorist] ideas or call for a false jihad or adopt a political position. It has also proved that the traditional sheikhs, no matter how different their social fatwas might be, were always right to have stressed the importance of cooperation within society whilst fending off sedition and preventing the manipulation of the state at the hands of those who seek to wreak havoc. This is especially so since we have witnessed the extent of the corruption and mischief in the land practiced in the Arab and Muslim world today, which happens at everyone’s expense under a religious pretext to serve political goals.

Let's hope he's not just a figurehead but has some real street credibility.

More good news from Iraq: Civilian casualties way down

The Financial Times reports:

The Iraqi government reported on Monday that civilian casualties dropped by more than 50 per cent in September, a month in which US casualties also declined to their lowest level in 14 months.

All estimates of civilian casualties are contentious, due to the difficulty of obtaining complete data from conflict zones scattered across the country as well as the danger that statistics will be politically manipulated.

But September’s drop is one of the most dramatic since the Iraqi government began releasing figures, and is in rough accordance with other data suggesting levels of violence may be dropping.

Moi interviewed!

By the incredible Pooja at The Muslim Woman.