The French: Iraq not the new jihadist factory

From today's New York Times:

[In] 2005, French authorities predicted a new and dangerous threat: young Muslims lured to the Iraqi battlefields who would return, radicalized, to use their newfound battlefield skills in terrorist acts inside France.

Dominique de Villepin, then the interior minister, singled out the cell in a speech two months later as proof of a risk that Iraqi-trained jihadists would “come back to France, armed with their experience, to carry out attacks.”

That was then. This is what the French (and "other Europeans") think now:

...French and other European intelligence and law enforcement officials are saying those fears appear to be overblown. The logistical challenges and expense of reaching Iraq has been one deterrent, they said, particularly with Syria’s making episodic efforts to halt the use of its territory as a transit route. Compared with the thousands of European Muslims who joined the fight in Afghanistan in the 1990s through organized networks in Britain, the number of fighters going to Iraq has been extremely small, according to senior French intelligence officials.

Another factor, the officials say, is that Iraqi insurgents currently neither need nor welcome European Muslims who lack military training and good Arabic-language skills — except if they are willing to conduct suicide missions.

The nature of the battle has also changed, making Iraq an alien destination for many would-be insurgents. The fight in Iraq is no longer just a jihad against foreign occupiers, but also a confusing civil war pitting Muslim against Muslim.

So does this mean the Europeans think there is no longer a terrorist threat? Not exactly, as the Times makes clear:

“At the moment, the major threat to Europe is coming from elsewhere — Pakistan, Afghanistan and Al Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb,” a terrorist organization based in North Africa, said Judge Bruguière, who now works for the European Union investigating terrorist financing.

Now that said, the European authorities do now seem to think the threat has diminished. And notice the reason why:

...law enforcement authorities, particularly in countries like France, Italy and Spain, say they are convinced that their sweeping legal authority to eavesdrop, make arrests, hold suspects for long periods of time and win convictions on the vague charge of association with a terrorist enterprise has made it easier to take preventive action.

“It’s impossible to give numbers, but fewer young people are leaving Italy and other European countries to wage jihad in Iraq,” said Armando Spataro, Italy’s senior counterterrorism magistrate. “I’m convinced part of the reason is that we’ve been successful in arresting and prosecuting people, even before they go to Iraq.”