Elvis confirmed to be in Najaf

U.S. Army inspecting a child's throat in Najaf

The New York Times confirmed that Moqtada al-Sadr, Iraqi cleric and leader of the Mahdi Army, is in Najaf. From the Times report:

The powerful Iraqi cleric Moktada al-Sadr surfaced in his home base of Kufa in southern Iraq today, delivering a sermon in a local mosque after what American intelligence officials called a four-month sojourn in Iran.

The cleric, addressing a large crowd amid heavy security, called for American forces to leave Iraq, but pointedly did not say how quickly those troops should leave, as he has in the past. A longer timeline would serve to give Mr. Sadr’s Mahdi Army extra time to prepare for the departure of the Americans.

Mr. Sadr called for an end to fighting between the Mahdi Army and Iraqi forces and police, asking his followers to conduct peaceful demonstrations instead. And though the Mahdi Army has been heavily involved in the nation’s brutal sectarian violence, he requested reconciliation between Shiites, Sunnis and Christians.

But as the Times went on to report:

“He has a great deal of administrative and management work to do,” said Toby Dodge, a Middle East expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “He has to reassert control over an increasingly wayward military organization.” Mr. Dodge, who recently spent a month in Iraq, added, “Clearly, he needs to make his mind up whether his military organization is a tool of rampant sectarianism or a tool of national reconciliation.”

Well, I'm hoping that Sadr's return means that we'll soon be seeing the Madhi Army performing throat inspections instead of sectarian executions and helping to restore Iraq's infrastructure as opposed to trying to tear Iraqis apart for a change.

Elvis spotted in Najaf

The Washington Post reports:

Moqtada al-Sadr, the influential Shiite cleric and militia leader who went into hiding before the launch of a U.S.-Iraqi security offensive in February, is in the southern city of Kufa, senior U.S. military commanders said Thursday.

Sadr, who has long opposed the U.S. occupation and is ratcheting up pressure for a withdrawal of American troops from Iraq, has returned from neighboring Iran, perhaps as recently as this week, they said.

Why now?

Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the No. 2 commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, said he believed Sadr had returned to Iraq to shore up his organization.

"I think he's trying to consolidate his power base," Odierno said Thursday evening in his office near the Baghdad airport. "I think there's been a little bit of cracking in the JAM organization," he added, using an acronym for Jaish al-Mahdi, the Arabic name for the Mahdi Army.

But as the Post went on to report:

[Another Army] officer added that although he was fairly confident that Sadr had returned to Kufa, he would not be entirely certain until the cleric makes an appearance. "I wouldn't take it as gospel until you sight Elvis in the building," he said.

Baghdad seems to be getting safer but Sunni attacks increase March's death toll in Iraq

The AFP reports:

The monthly death toll in Iraq rose 15 percent in March, an official revealed Sunday, as insurgents and sectarian militias continue to defy a military crackdown in Baghdad.

While the AFP uses the generic "sectarian militias" in its lede, further down in the story one realizes that Shiite militia attacks are significantly down. It was Sunni-style car bombings that increased March's death toll by 272 from February and the highest casualty attacks mostly occurred outside of Baghdad.

The AFP writes:

Middle East analyst Joost Hiltermann of Brussels-based think-tank, the International Crisis Group, told AFP the [Shiite] militia was deliberately "lying low".

"This is in the interest of the Mahdi Army. The Mahdi Army, realising that in the longer term the Americans will leave and they will prevail, is very happy if the United States go after the (Sunni) insurgents," he said.

While most of the casualties were civilians, 85 US military personnel were among the dead - almost twice the number of Iraqi security forces killed even though Iraqi forces are supposed to be increasingly leading the charge, so to speak.

Is the Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army splintering?

The Associated Press is reporting that "Shiite militia may be disintegrating":

The violent Shiite militia known as the Mahdi Army is breaking into splinter groups, with up to 3,000 gunmen now financed directly by Iran and no longer loyal to the firebrand cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, adding a potentially even more deadly element to Iraq's violent mix.

Hundreds of these fighters are alleged to have gone to Iran for training by the elite Quds force, a branch of Iran's Revolutionary Guard. This is the same force that is believed to have trained Hezbollah as well as jihadists in Bosnia and Afghanistan.

Al-Sadr has not been seen in Iraq since early February. "Conditions are not suitable for him to return," one of his aides told the AP. "His safety will not be guaranteed if he returns."

According to the AP:

In recent weeks, Mahdi Army fighters who escaped possible arrest in the Baghdad security push have received $600 each upon reaching Iran. The former Mahdi Army militiamen working for the Revolutionary Guards operate under the cover a relief agency for Iraqi refugees, they said.

Once fighters defect, they receive a monthly stipend of $200, said the commanders.

Estimates of the strength of Mahdi Army fighters range between 10,000 and 60,000 men.

But as the AP observes, "Like many of Iraq's warring parties, it's a loosely knit force."