Could the surge plan be working?

Preliminary numbers suggest that it may in fact well be. Even the New York Times reports:

Iraqi officials estimated that civilian deaths nationwide had dropped 36 percent in June, down to about 1,200. Civilian casualties in May had topped 1,900, they said. The Web site icasualties.org, which tabulates news reports of civilian deaths, put the number of deaths in June at about 1,342, down from 1,980 in May.

In Baghdad, 730 civilians were reported killed in June from assassinations, bombs or small-arms fire. That was down from 1,070 in May, a decline of almost 32 percent, an Interior Ministry official told The New York Times.

The cost of this good news for Iraqis, it should be duly noted, has largely been borne by U.S. military members who made the ultimate sacrifice for Iraq. As the Times reports:

With the increase in American troops starting early this year, there has also been a rise in soldiers’ deaths, although somewhat fewer American troops died in June, 101, than in April, 104, or May, when deaths reached 126.

Not to mention what all this is costing the American taxpayer.

Smug alert: Beware of good news from Iraq

USA Today has an interesting set of graphics on the changes in death patterns in Iraq.

The number of civilians killed in multiple-fatality bombings targeting civilians (read terrorist attacks) seems to be plummeting.

Jan 379
Feb 622
Mar 617
Apr 634
May 325
Jun 38 (through June 8)

Now I admit, the June numbers are way too preliminary, but still, there does seem to have been some positive trending.

The cost of this progress, you should note, has been U.S. and Iraqi military lives. As USA Today reports, April and May were the deadliest two-month period since the war began for U.S. forces. And Iraqi military and police fatalities topped 300 in April compared to January's death toll of 91.

Now whether this positive trend will continue - well, I hope it will. But then I'm not someone who is invested in the idea that the U.S. should fail in Iraq.

Call me cynical, but I sense that some people want the U.S. to fail in Iraq only so they can say I told you it would be a disaster. They don't care about the consequences of such a failure, they are just desperate to feel smug.