Evaluating the National Intelligence Estimate: Al Qaeda's stronger position

The London Times reports from Baghdad:

Fed up with being part of a group that cuts off a person’s face with piano wire to teach others a lesson, dozens of low-level members of al-Qaeda in Iraq are daring to become informants for the US military in a hostile Baghdad neighbourhood.

As the Times continues:

“People in al-Qaeda come to us and give us information,” said Lieutenant Scott Flanigan, as he drove past a line of fruit and vegetable stalls near a shabby shopping street in Doura, where people were buying bread and other groceries.

The informants were not seeking an amnesty for crimes that they had committed. “They just do not want to be killed,” Lieutenant Flanigan said.

Makes sense to me that such an organization would be losing popular support. But wait, didn't the CIA just come out with a report saying Al Qaeda is supposed to be more popular now?

See posts below.

And now for my favorite story of the day....

Even better than yesterday's item about the 52-year-old five-times-married Briton becoming Bin Laden's 27-year-old son's second wife.

From the New York Times:

For more than a year, the leader of one the most notorious insurgent groups in Iraq was said to be a mysterious Iraqi called Abu Omar al-Baghdadi.

As the titular head of the Islamic State in Iraq, Mr. Baghdadi issued incendiary pronouncements. Despite claims by an Iraqi Interior Ministry official in May that Mr. Baghdadi had been killed, he appeared to have persevered unscathed.

On Wednesday, the chief United States military spokesman here, Brig. Gen. Kevin J. Bergner, provided a new explanation for Mr. Baghdadi’s ability to escape attack: he never existed.

General Bergner told reporters that a senior Iraqi insurgent captured this month said that the elusive Mr. Baghdadi was actually a fictional character whose declarations on audiotape were read by a man named Abu Abdullah al-Naima.

General Bergner said the ruse was devised by Abu Ayyub al-Masri, the Egyptian-born leader of the insurgent group Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. Although the group is mostly Iraqi, much of its leadership is foreign, and Mr. Masri was reportedly trying to mask the outsiders’ dominant role.

As the Times report continues:

General Bergner said that Mr. Masri’s ploy was to invent Mr. Baghdadi, a figure whose very name was meant to establish an Iraqi pedigree, install him as the head of a front organization called the Islamic State of Iraq, and then arrange for Mr. Masri to swear allegiance to him.

Adding to the deception, he said, the deputy leader in Osama bin Laden’s group Al Qaeda, Ayman al-Zawahri, publicly supported Mr. Baghdadi in video and Internet statements.

The captured insurgent who was said to have alerted the Americans was identified as Khalid Abdul Fatah Daoud Mahmud al-Mashadani, who was said to have been detained by American forces in Mosul on July 4.

According to General Bergner, Mr. Mashadani is the most senior Iraqi operative in Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. According to some reports, he served in Saddam Hussein’s Special Republican Guard and later became an insurgent with the group Ansar Al Sunna. About two and a half years ago, Mr. Mashadani joined Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, where he served as the Media Emir, or publicity director, the general said.

General Bergner said that Mr. Mashadani was also an intermediary between Mr. Masri in Iraq and Mr. bin Laden and Mr. Zawahri, whom the Bush administration says are remotely supporting and guiding Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia.

The Times, being the fair and balanced speaker of truth to power it is, suggests that the real deception here may well be the Bush administration's:

An important part of the American strategy against Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has been to drive wedges between the group, other insurgent groups and the Sunni population, and General Bergner’s briefing continued that theme.

This is, of course, why the Times is now calling Al Qaeda in Iraq Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia. Does this mean, as James Taranto at the Wall Street Journal suggests, that we should also start referring to the Times as the New Amsterdam Times?

Saudi Arabia's other major export product: Suicide terrorists

While the world can't yet figure out how to live without Saudi oil, some Saudis at least only want to live to kill the rest of us. The New York Times reports:

About 45% of all foreign militants targeting U.S. troops and Iraqi civilians and security forces are from Saudi Arabia; 15% are from Syria and Lebanon; and 10% are from North Africa, according to official U.S. military figures made available to The Times by the senior officer. Nearly half of the 135 foreigners in U.S. detention facilities in Iraq are Saudis, he said.

Fighters from Saudi Arabia are thought to have carried out more suicide bombings than those of any other nationality, said the senior U.S. officer, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the subject's sensitivity. It is apparently the first time a U.S. official has given such a breakdown on the role played by Saudi nationals in Iraq's Sunni Arab insurgency.

He said 50% of all Saudi fighters in Iraq come here as suicide bombers. In the last six months, such bombings have killed or injured 4,000 Iraqis.

That's 4,000 Iraqis. As the Times report continues:

The Saudi government does not dispute that some of its youths are ending up as suicide bombers in Iraq, but says it has done everything it can to stop the bloodshed.

"Saudis are actually being misused. Someone is helping them come to Iraq. Someone is helping them inside Iraq. Someone is recruiting them to be suicide bombers. We have no idea who these people are. We aren't getting any formal information from the Iraqi government," said Gen. Mansour Turki, spokesman for the Saudi Interior Ministry.

"If we get good feedback from the Iraqi government about Saudis being arrested in Iraq, probably we can help," he said.

While this sounds like a pretty lame excuse to me, the Iraqi government should make a dramatic gesture of stepping forward to give the Saudis names and photos so they can do something about this.

But wait, check this out:

U.S. officials had not shared with Iraqi officials information gleaned from Saudi detainees, but this has started to change, said an Iraqi source, who asked not to be identified. For example, U.S. officials provided information about Saudi fighters and suicide bombers to Iraqi security officials who traveled to Saudi Arabia last week.

Iraqi advisor Askari asserted that Vice President Dick Cheney, in a visit to Saudi Arabia in May, pressured officials to crack down on militant traffic to Iraq. But that message has not yet produced results, Askari said.

. . .Asked why U.S. officials in Iraq had not publicly criticized Saudi Arabia the way they had Iran or Syria, the senior military officer said, "Ask the State Department. This is a political juggernaut."

So it takes the Vice President himself to give the Saudis the bottom line here? Poor Cheney, he always has to be the bearer of bad news.

Not surprisingly, many Iraqis (Americans too, I might add) suspect that Riyadh knows very well who comprises their volunteer suicide bombing brigade. But they prefer these disgruntled souls to blow themselves up in Iraq as opposed to at home. (Can't say as I blame them.)

Many Shiites, on the other hand, think that what's going on in Iraq is the Saudi's proxy war with Iran.

But now consider this bit of information:

Al Qaeda in Iraq and its affiliate groups number anywhere from 5,000 to 10,000 individuals, the senior U.S. military officer said. Iraqis make up the majority of members, facilitating attacks, indoctrinating, fighting, but generally not blowing themselves up. Iraqis account for roughly 10% of suicide bombers, according to the U.S. military.

To do the math for you, that means 90% of the suicide bombings are the work of foreign jihadists.

Another New York Times headline that makes no sense

Unless, of course, you consider the political context.

I refer to today's article entitled, "Bush Distorts Qaeda Links, Critics Assert." The Times writes:

But while American intelligence agencies have pointed to links between leaders of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and the top leadership of the broader Qaeda group, the militant group is in many respects an Iraqi phenomenon.

Now try and reconcile these two paragraphs with the headline:

Just last week, Mr. Zawahri [Al Qaeda's second-in-command after bin Laden] called on Muslims to travel to Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia to carry out their fight against the Americans and appealed for Muslims to support the Islamic State in Iraq, an umbrella group that Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia has established to attract broader Sunni support.

The broader issue is whether Iraq is a central front in the war against Al Qaeda, as Mr. Bush maintains, or a distraction that has diverted the United States from focusing on the Qaeda sanctuaries in Pakistan while providing Qaeda leaders with a cause for rallying support.

Maybe a more accurate headline would have read: "Bush and the Al Qaeda Leadership Distort Qaeda Links."

I do give the Times credit for including this statement:

War critics have often played down the significance of the group despite its gruesome record of suicide attacks and its widely suspected role in destroying a Shiite shrine in Samarra in February 2006 that set Iraq on the road to civil war.

Michael Yon talks to former Sunni insurgent Abu Ali

Intrepid blogger Michael Yon reports from Iraq on his July 9th talk with the leader of the 1920s Revolution Brigades in Baqubah, Abu Ali. As Yon writes:

Just months ago our forces would have shot Abu Ali on sight, and he surely would have done the same to us. . .

We had certainly killed a lot of his people, and the 1920s certainly had killed many American soldiers. During severe fighting with al Qaeda in April 2007, the 1920s reached out to American soldiers, and together they have been dismantling al Qaeda here in Baqubah and other places. If we had to fight an allied force of 1920s and al Qaeda, there is no telling how many soldiers we would have lost. . .

In talking with the soft-spoken Abu Ali, his manner is similar to that of experienced American combat leaders. He is direct and clear in his speech (through an interpreter), and his intelligence is evident. An intelligent enemy who knows the dangers—who is not part of an insane death-cult promising 72 virgins and eternity with God to martyrs—and yet stands his ground against Americans over a long period, must possess great courage and annealed strength. . .

While we were driving in the belly of the Stryker into Buhriz, I asked Abu Ali, “What did you do to al Qaeda?”

Abu Ali said that on 1 April 2007, he and his people attacked al Qaeda in Buhriz for their crimes against Islam. He also said something that many Muslims have said to me: al Qaeda are not Muslims. (Both Sunni and Shia have said nearly the exact same words, at times on video.) Abu Ali said they fought hard against al Qaeda, and on 10 April, they asked the Americans to join the attack. It worked.

. . .I asked Abu Ali why he and the 1920s turned against al Qaeda in Buhriz. Speaking through LT David Wallach, a native Arabic speaker, Abu Ali said that “al Qaeda is an abomination of Islam: cutting off heads, stealing people’s money, kidnapping . . . every type of torture they have done.”

The recent stories of baked children came to mind. I asked if Abu Ali had heard about children being baked. Ali said no, he had not heard such a story, but he would not be surprised if it were true because al Qaeda had done so many crimes, such as cutting off a man’s head, putting it up on a stick and parading it around town. . .

Ali thought for a moment as some local people tried to interrupt him with greetings, and he said, “I ask one thing,” and now I paraphrase Ali’s words: “After the Iraqi Army and Police take hold and the security forces are ready, we want a schedule for the leaving of the American forces.”

“I will tell the Americans this,” I said.

And so he has.

Al Qaeda is sounding desperate

So desperate, that even the media can no longer ignore the signs. The Associated Press reports:

A new video by al-Qaida's deputy leader Thursday left no doubt about what the terror network claims is at stake in Iraq — describing it as a centerpiece of its anti-American fight and insisting the Iraqi insurgency is under its direct leadership.

But the proclamations by Ayman al-Zawahri carried another unintended message: reflecting the current troubles confronting the Sunni extremists in Iraq, experts said.

As the report continues:

In the unusually long video — at just over an hour and a half — al-Zawahri depicted the Islamic State of Iraq as a vanguard for fighting off the U.S. military and eventually establishing a "caliphate" of Islamic rule across the region.

"The Islamic State of Iraq is set up in Iraq, the mujahedeen (holy warriors) celebrate it in the streets of Iraq, the people demonstrate in support of it," al-Zawahri said, "pledges of allegiance to it are declared in the mosques of Baghdad."

I wonder what Zawahiri has been smoking. Because from all the press accounts I've seen, this Islamic State in Iraq is far from being celebrated. As the AP reports:

But al-Qaida in Iraq — the group that claims allegiance to Osama bin Laden's goals — has been put on the defensive. Some Sunni insurgent groups have publicly split with it, distancing themselves from its bomb attacks on Iraqi civilians and accusing al-Qaida of trying to strong-arm their members into joining.

One influential faction, the 1920 Revolution Brigades, has openly helped U.S. forces in new offensives against al-Qaida in and around Baghdad, and some Sunni tribes have turned against it in western Anbar province.

The doctor, apparently realizing that I wouldn't be the only one out there who wouldn't buy into his assessment, did kind of sort of acknowledge that even previous supporters may have given up on Al Qaeda's competence.

As the AP continued to quote him:"The mujahedeen are not innocent of deficiency, error and slips," he said on the videotape. "The mujahedeen must solve their problems among themselves."

I do wonder what his assessment of the mujahedeen's problems would be. Demanding that people stop mixing vegetables perhaps?

Look at this strange coincidence

Check out who Hamas is now fighting in Gaza. From the New York Times:

Hamas on Monday arrested the spokesman of a shadowy group holding a British Broadcasting Corp. reporter....

Hamas has demanded that the Army of Islam, led by a violent Gaza clan, free Alan Johnston, who was kidnapped on a Gaza City street on March 12.

But the group, whose formerly close relations with Hamas have soured, has demanded that Britain first release a radical Islamic cleric with ties to al-Qaida. It has threatened to kill Johnston if Hamas tried to free him by force.

Now consider what else the Times reports:

The Army of Islam threatened to release what it said were damaging documents about Hamas if its spokesman, Abu Khatab al-Maqdisi, remained in custody. The group also kidnapped 10 members of Hamas....

Al-Maqdisi was arrested while trying to fire on members of a Hamas-allied security force, said Sami Abu Zuhri, a senior Hamas official, who denied any link between al-Maqdisi's arrest and efforts to free Johnston.

To me this suggests that Hamas is now fighting the same type of insurgents the U.S. is in Iraq - that is, Al Qaeda linked insurgents.

A Classicist takes the pulse of the modern Middle East

Victor Davis Hanson, an expert on the Ancient Greeks, and a senior fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution, opines in today's NRO:

On the debacle in Iraq he writes:

...the United States is taking an enormous toll on jihadists, and despite the terrible cost in blood and treasure, has not given up on a constitutional government in Iraq.

As to what's going on in Kurdistan:

...Kurdistan is emerging as a success few envisioned, refuting some conventional wisdom about the incompatibility of capitalism and constitutional government with Middle Eastern Islam.

On the Sunni Arab states:

The Sunni front-line states, who subsidized jihadists and still enjoy our misery in Iraq, but they are now terrified that these killers, in league with the Iranians, will turn on them. The net result is not just that some Sunnis are helping us in Iraq, but that they are being urged to for the first time by those in the Arab world, who would prefer to see the Iraqi government, rather than the terrorists, succeed.

And on Iran's quest for regional hegemony:

Theocratic Iran is not exactly as “empowered” as is generally alleged, but in the greatest crisis of its miserable existence. As the mullahs up the ante in the region, they could very soon not only lose Iraq, but also their own dictatorship. Trying to oppose the West in Iraq, Lebanon, and the West Bank is taking an enormous financial toll, as is the general isolation from the world community.

With oil prices at an all-time high, Iran can't provide gasoline for its own people, who resent the billions spent instead on Arab terrorists abroad. If oil were to dip from near $70 to $50-55 a barrel, the regime would face abject bankruptcy.

Next on Syria, Iran's loyal client-state:

Syria for all its terror still can't overthrow the government in Lebanon, but has managed the impossible: Not only does the Arab world seek to isolate it, but France and the United States are cooperating to thwart it in Lebanon.

On Hamas coup d'etat so to speak:

Hamas is high on victory in Gaza for now, but all it has accomplished is to further concentrate its nexus of terror into one small miserable — and quite vulnerable — locale in the midst of Jordan, Israel, and Egypt, while sacrificing the Palestinians greatest advantage: deniability of culpability. It will be harder now for the tired good cop/bad cop excuses, “militant wing,” etc. and all the other justifications for terror that the Palestinians use. Since Hamas bragged that it had routed (it matters less whether true or false) the Palestinian Authority from Gaza, the next barrage of rocket attacks from there, rightly or wrongly, will liberate Israel in its response from the past worries of collateral damage.

And finally, how the "Hezbollah victory" in Lebanon must look in hindsight from the perspective of the victors:

For all the talk of losing the Lebanon War, it is Iran and Syria, not Israel, that are stuck with billions in reconstruction costs for their battered Shiite pawns on the front lines.

And just I was feeling a bit smug myself...

Indulging in some of my own self-congratulation, feeling that well, in the end, it will be we optimists who prevail (see post below if you have no idea what I'm talking about here), I then have a severe reality check when I see this New York Times story: "Truck Bomb Hits Baghdad Mosque, and 61 Are Killed."

You should check out Alissa Rubin's multimedia presentation from the scene of the aftermath to fully appreciate the horror of what just happened.

But, in case you can't, here's a glimpse from the Times written report:

"It was like an electrocution,” said Najim Abdul Wahid, 45, a carpenter who was working in the square at the time. “I saw a flash. When I was able to stand up again, I saw many charred bodies in the streets. People were screaming, calling for help. I saw many people burning inside their cars. Charred bodies mixed and melted with charred cars.”

Iraqis blamed the usual suspects for the bombing, Rubin reports (duly noted - they didn't blame Mossad - yet):

Jalal Jaff, a Sunni Kurd, who lives just behind the street where the bomb exploded and raced to the scene to pull people from burning cars, turned his head away on Tuesday as he passed the parking lot with more than a dozen destroyed cars, only their charred frames left, the rubber completely burned off their tires.

“He is a paid terrorist, not a human being,” he said. “The families will never know which body belongs to their relatives. They were mutilated. They had no faces.”

Like most of the people in the neighborhood, Mr. Jaff blamed Al Qaeda, a term used by Iraqis to refer generally to terrorists. The group operating in Iraq known as Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia includes many Iraqis but has some foreign leadership.

“Al Qaeda is like an octopus with many arms and hands,” he said. “This bombing was a challenge to the American and Iraqi army; they cannot get rid of these terrorists.”

Others in the neighborhood went further, accusing the Americans of helping Al Qaeda, which most people believe is responsible for the majority of the suicide bombings.

A man who identified himself only as Qassim, some of whose friends were killed in the large open parking lot across from the mosque, shouted: “The Americans finance Al Qaeda. They secure places and routes for them to do this.”

But others said they saw the bombing as an effort by religious extremists to inflame sectarian divisions. “People here realize that there is a conspiracy to sow hatred between us,” said Mr. Jaff.

More evidence Al Qaeda in Iraq is losing its grip

Time Magazine's Joe Klein writes from Baquba, as he writes, "the centerpiece of the current U.S. offensive in Iraq" where, he writes, "an estimated 400 to 500 al-Qaeda fighters were estimated to be in the city when the U.S. forces attacked on Monday." As he reports:

A lieutenant colonel named Bruce Antonia told [Lt. Gen. Raymond] Odierno about preparing to attack the Buhritz neighborhood a few nights earlier when he was approached by local Sunni inusurgents—members, they said, of the 1920 Revolutionary Brigades—who were streaming out of the neighborhood. "They said they'd been fighting al-Qaeda but had run out of ammunition and asked us to supply them. We told them, 'Show us where AQ is and we'll fight them.'" The insurgents did and the neighborhood was cleared.

A second lieutenant colonel named Avanulis Smiley picked up the story from there, "Sir, they've also showed us seven buried IED sites. They gave us specific information—description of the houses, gate color, tree trunks."

After the briefing I asked Colonel Antonia if he'd asked the Sunnis why they had turned against al-Qaeda. "They said it was religious stuff," he said. "AQI demanded that the women wear abayas, no smoking and they preached an extreme version of Islam in the mosque. They'd also spent the winter without food and fuel because of the violence al-Qaeda was causing. One guy said to me, 'We fought against you because you invaded our country and you're infidels. But you treat us with more dignity than al-Qaeda,' and he said they'd continue to work with us. I've been involved in many operations here and this is a first—usually everybody's shooting at us. This is the first time we've had any of them on our side." (In web postings, the 1920 Revolutionary Brigade has denied it is cooperating with the Americans.)

Odierno later told me similar anti-al-Qaeda rebellions were happening throughout the country, including some neighborhoods of Baghdad. "Iraqis notice things. They noticed what happened when we began to support the Sunni tribes against al-Qaeda in al-Anbar. And al-Qaeda seems to have overplayed its hand."

At a second briefing, at a bunkered, joint U.S.-Iraqi command post in the middle of Baquba, the news was less optimistic. An Iraqi General said that he was pretty certain that the al-Qaeda leadership had slipped away, north to Tikrit and Samarra, and that many of the fighters were burying their equipment before they left town, hoping to return—as always—when the Americans left. "Well, it's up to you to make sure they don't come back," Odierno said.

Indeed.

As I would think it must be clear to anyone with even the most remote access to the American media: the U.S. cannot be counted on to stay long in Iraq.

Contrary to what our enemies both at home and abroad might have you believe, the vast majority of Americans see their country as a republic not an empire. Those who supported the Iraq invasion saw its end-goal as the removal of a dictator who would have happily supplied America's enemies refuge, training, and yes, weapons of mass destruction.

Is there anyone who disputes the notion that, at the very least, Saddam wished he had WMDs? Why else would he have subjected his people to more than a decade of punishing sanctions? Why else would he have played the games he did with the U.N. weapons inspectors?

Anyway, it's important, I think that Iraqis at least grasp this fundamental American reality: Americans will not stay in Iraq forever; in fact, the sooner they can leave, the better.

Live from Baghdad: New Sunni alliance forming to oppose Al Qaeda in Iraq

USA Today reports, er, yesterday, that more Sunnis are joining the fight:

More than 10 Iraqi tribes in the Baghdad area have reached agreements with U.S. and Iraqi forces for the first time to oppose al-Qaeda, raising the U.S. military's hopes that a trend started in western Iraq is spreading here.
Some of the groups, which have members who fought alongside al-Qaeda in the past, have been providing useful intelligence to U.S. forces about their former allies, according to the U.S. military.

"They know where they live and who they are," said Lt. Col. Rick Welch, a staff officer who works with tribes in the capital area.

General Petraeus speaks to the London Times from Baghdad

Here are some of the excerpts his interview which took place June 10th.

What about the US military operation currently underway in Diyala province (northeast of Baghdad)?

"Zarqawi (the former al-Qaeda leader in Iraq) stated that he intended for Baquba (the capital of Diyala) to become the new capital of his caliphate in 2006 shortly before he was killed. The downward spiral of Baquba began in late summer last year. You get a cycle where al-Qaeda moves in, they put down some roots, they intimidate the security forces, which means the security forces and the Coalition get less intelligence which means their operations are less effective. It just sort of goes down. We have seen it in other provinces. As al-Qaeda were pushed out of Anbar province this year in mid-March, more of them moved across to Diyala."

Are you concerned about the tactic of arming groups that previously opposed you?

"You want locals to establish local security. In Anbar Province tribes have always been important. You can't ignore the tribes, they are of enormous importance? If you have a police support unit, you put them through a 40-hour course we call them police auxiliary in the US. You want to tie them in. Get them on the payroll. Then you can get them to enlist in the army. Those are working. They swear allegiance to Iraq. Those oaths mean something to people who put premium on honour."

What about al-Qaeda?

As they were run out of Euphrates river valley they moved east. There will be big fights in some of these areas. An awful lot of their foreign fighters come through Syria. Eighty or so foreign fighters come through a month. That does not sound like much but every one of those is a potential suicide bomber. We think that 80 to 90 per cent of suicide bombers are foreign fighters.

What about the leadership in Iraq?

"It is still led by foreigners called al-Qaeda Senior Leadership (AQSL). Our assessment is that this is the central front for al-Qaeda. They have a global war of terror, and Iraq is the central front. Whether you like it or not. That is something that the leaders of the intelligence community in the West and our joint special operations commander agree on and that is why he is here two thirds or three quarters of his time. It is certainly one very important consideration in looking at Iraq."

What about political reconciliation at the national level?

“Some of legislation is more important than others. For example the oil law has an enormous far-reaching long-term effect. The idea of enshrining in law the idea that the oil revenues of a country are to be shared equitably with all Iraqis. That is a very significant development. It is huge. It is in the framework. They are very, very close on this. Long term it is hugely important both to the economic revival of Iraq and to keep the country together as one.

Live from Baghdad: "A fundamental struggle is being fought on Iraqi soil"

Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki writes from Baghdad in today's Wall Street Journal:

War being what it is, the images of Iraq that come America's way are of car bombs and daily explosions. Missing from the coverage are the great, subtle changes our country is undergoing, the birth of new national ideas and values which will in the end impose themselves despite the death and destruction that the terrorists have been hell-bent on inflicting on us. Those who endured the brutality of the former regime, those who saw the outside world avert its gaze from their troubles, know the magnitude of the change that has come to Iraq. A fundamental struggle is being fought on Iraqi soil between those who believe that Iraqis, after a long nightmare, can retrieve their dignity and freedom, and others who think that oppression is the order of things and that Iraqis are doomed to a political culture of terror, prisons and mass graves. Some of our neighbors have made this struggle more lethal still, they have placed their bets on the forces of terror in pursuit of their own interests.

After explaining some of the difficult policy issues his government faces, he continues:

We have entered into a war, I want it known, against militias that had preyed upon the weakness of the national government and in the absence of law and order in some of our cities, even in some of the districts in Baghdad, imposed their own private laws--laws usually driven by extremism and a spirit of vengeance. Some of these militias presented themselves as defenders of their own respective communities against other militias. We believe that the best way to defeat these militias is to build and enhance the capabilities of our government as a defender of the rights of our citizens. A stable government cannot coexist with these militias.
Our conflict, it should be emphasized time and again, has been fueled by regional powers that have reached into our affairs. Iraq itself is eager to build decent relations with its neighbors. We don't wish to enter into regional entanglements. Our principle concern is to heal our country. We have reached out to those among our neighbors who are worried about the success and example of our democratic experiment, and to others who seem interested in enhancing their regional influence.

Our message has been the same to one and all: We will not permit Iraq to be a battleground for other powers. In the contests and ambitions swirling around Iraq, we are neutral and dedicated to our country's right to prosperity and a new life, inspired by a memory of a time when Baghdad was--as Washington is today--a beacon of enlightenment on which others gazed with admiration. We have come to believe, as Americans who founded your country once believed, that freedom is a precious inheritance. It is never cheap but the price is worth paying if we are to rescue our country.

Is the tribal alliance against Al Qaeda splintering in Anbar Province?

The Washington Post seems to think there may be signs that this is true. From today's report:

In an interview in his Baghdad office, Ali Hatem Ali Suleiman, 35, a leader of the Dulaim confederation, the largest tribal organization in Anbar, said that the Anbar Salvation Council would be dissolved because of growing internal dissatisfaction over its cooperation with U.S. soldiers and the behavior of the council's most prominent member, Abdul Sattar Abu Risha. Suleiman called Abu Risha a "traitor" who "sells his beliefs, his religion and his people for money."

Abu Risha, who enjoys the support of U.S. military commanders, denied the allegations and said the council is not at risk of breaking apart. "There is no such thing going on," he said in a telephone interview from Jordan.

Well, let's hope that even if the tribes can't work out their differences, they still remain clear as to who their real enemy is, because as the Post duly notes:

Since the tribes began working with U.S. forces [about nine months ago] to resist al-Qaeda in Iraq -- and since they began receiving significant amounts of weapons and vehicles -- violence in the province and deaths of U.S. soldiers there have fallen dramatically.

Anthony H. Cordesman, a military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, seems to suggest that the Sunni tribes in Anbar could care less about the reduction in casualties they've experienced because they're only in it for the money. As he reportedly told the Post: "The question with a group like this always is, does it stay bought?" What can the Iraqi government offer them over time, and is it enough for them to stay with the bargain?"

Gen. David H. Petraeus, the top U.S. military commander in Iraq, was less cynical. As the Post reports:

"I think they've done this for their lives," Petraeus said during a recent briefing on Anbar. "This is not just a business deal they've struck. When you oppose al-Qaeda, you are putting it all on the line. This is not an economic issue."

Suleiman alleges that Abu Risha runs an oil smuggling ring and that his tribe menaces the Anbar roads with their highway banditry. For his part, Abu Risha denied the allegations, dismissing Suleiman's criticisms as mere jealousy. "I am in Anbar and I am the first fighter in Anbar. And what they are saying about it is jealousy and no more than jealousy. They are the enemies of success," he told the Post in a telephone interview.

People in Anbar, actually in the theatre of action as opposed to in far-away Baghdad, where the Post reporter is trying to assess the situation, as the reporter is careful to note:

Another member of the council, Raad Sabah al-Alwani, said he had not heard about Suleiman's complaints about the council or plans to dissolve it. "Impossible -- I am the head of the council for Ramadi," he said, referring to Anbar's provincial capital. "The Salvation is like one family. There are no problems between us and the members."

A U.S. Marine spokesman in Anbar, Maj. Jeffrey Pool, said that "we are not detecting any of the indicators of a major restructuring in Sahawa al-Iraq," using another name for the group. "The view from Baghdad will differ from the view from Ramadi."

For now at least, according to the Post, U.S. military commanders are not giving up on the tribes in Anbar:

"When the Americans were sure of our intentions in exterminating al-Qaeda terrorists, they backed us up with weapons, cars and money," said Col. Ahmad Hamad al-Dulaimi, another top police officer in Ramadi. "Without the American forces, we couldn't do anything worth mentioning."

U.S. military officials said that virtually everyone in Anbar belongs to a tribe and that rather than ignore that fact, they were trying to exploit it. "There is an overlay of governmental structure and tribal structure, and the two, when they work well, mesh and, in a sense, complement each other in Anbar," Petraeus said.

"A key link in the VBIED network has been removed"

This is apparently military-speak for the killing of an Al Qaeda leader in Baghdad. CENTCOM reports:

Coalition Forces killed a terrorist leader and detained three other suspected terrorists during an operation in Baghdad June 5 to disrupt a bombing network in the city. . .

Muhammad Mahmud 'Abd Kazim Husayn al-Mashadani, also known as Abu Abdullah, was the terrorist killed during the raid. He was a known al-Qaeda emir in the Hay al-Jamah area of Baghdad and part of a deadly vehicle-borne improvised explosive device cell. He was positively identified...by associates and individuals detained during the raid.

"A key link in the VBIED network has been removed," said Lt. Col. Christopher Garver, MNF-I spokesperson. "We will continue to assault the VBIED network in order to stop their indiscriminate attacks against the people of Iraq."

Let's hope that the net effect of this is to save lives in Baghdad.

Looks like now there is a full-blown insurgency raging against Al Qaeda's occupation of Iraq...

More and more Iraqis seem to be taking up arms in order to prevent Al Qaeda from turning their homeland into their version of hell, I mean, Islamic paradise on earth. From the Associated Press:

A battle raged in west Baghdad on Thursday after residents rose up against al-Qaida and called for U.S. military help to end random gunfire that forced people to huddle indoors and threats that kept students from final exams, a member of the district council said.

Members of al-Qaida, who consider the district part of their so-called Islamic State of Iraq, were preventing students from attending final exams, shooting randomly and forcing residents to stay in their homes, the councilman said.

Let's hope the residents of the Swat Valley in Pakistan draw strength from this news too. See posts below if you don't know what I'm talking about here.

Torture Al Qaeda style - and if you think the U.S. military recruitment methods are bad, check out the ones al Qaeda is using....

The mainstream media seems largely uninterested in the story of al Qaeda's treatment of Iraqi detainees, but thankfully CNN's Senior Baghdad, Jane Arraf, is on the case, reporting on Iraqslogger from Baquba:

He wasn’t anyone rich, or important – he only sold used clothes for a living but they saw him smoking at the bus depot and that was enough for them to take him away.

He rolls up his pants to show me the scars inflicted during four days in captivity by suspected al-Qaeda members – this 24-year-old Iraqi man afraid to give his name and afraid to show his face on camera.

His legs are painfully thin from what appears to be a lifetime of near malnutrition. On his ankles, feet and hands are the raised round scars where he says his captors butted cigarettes out on his skin. He pulls up his striped cotton T-shirt to show me the same marks on his chest.

“They told me the Islamic State prohibits smoking,” he said. They were wearing masks, he said. When they checked his ID they found a Shiite name. They shoved him face-first into a car, blindfolded him and took him to the house in Baquba crowded with hostages.

The vendor was one of seven Iraqis rescued by soldiers from the 3-2 Stryker Brigade’s 5th Battalion 20th Infantry Regiment when they swept through an area of Old Baquba last week known as an al-Qaeda stronghold.

Nine others they were holding – including four Iraqi police – were shot dead just before the Americans arrived and the insurgents fled.

The man told Arraf that Al Qaeda was holding him because they wanted to kill his son, an Iraqi policeman.

As Arraf went on to report:

American and Iraqi officials say while al-Qaeda is able to draw marginalized young men with few prospects, when they don’t come willingly, they are using increasingly brutal recruiting methods.

“People used to be able to get by by saying ‘We’re with you’ and offer passive support by turning a blind eye to a lot of things that are going on. Now they say ‘you’re with us or against us’ and if you say ‘I’m with you’, they make you prove it,” [a U.S. intelligence who insisted on anonymity] officer said.

She said one 15-year-old boy arrested in Baquba said he was kidnapped by al Qaeda, raped and beaten and told they would kill his family unless he joined them. His first test was shooting someone, she said.

Contrast all the headlines your reading about this Al Qaeda torture story with the barrage you had to endure regarding Abu Ghraib.

The media's deafening silence reminds me of the UN Human Rights Council.

Last June, the council distinguished itself by singling out Israel for annual reviews of its alleged human rights abuses while expressing no interest in reviewing the activities of other countries with far worse records - namely, Myanmar, and North Korea, not not to mention several Arab countries.

Even then Secretary-General Kofi Annan was was incredulous. As he said in his annual International Human Rights Day address that year: "[It's] not that Israel should be given a free pass. Absolutely not. But the Council should give the same attention to grave violations committed by other states as well.".

By the same token, coudn't the media at least mention this Al Qaeda torture story?

Really, it's not as if it could be considered culturally insensitive or anything. Al Qaeda's victims here are other Arabs, in many cases, their fellow Sunnis. The media shouldn't be giving these guys a pass just because they're not, I don't know, Western, American, Israeli, whatever.

Can't everyone just be held to the same standard? I am certain people would suffer less if this simple rule were applied.

Another Sunni province in Iraq turning against Al Qaeda; meanwhile Sadr's militia is terrorizing Iraqi policemen elsewhere in Iraq

The Associated Press reports:

American forces freed 42 kidnapped Iraqis — some of whom had been hung from ceilings and tortured for months — in a raid Sunday on an al-Qaida hideout north of Baghdad, the U.S. military said.

Military officials said the operation, launched on tips from residents, showed that Iraqis in the turbulent Diyala province were turning against Sunni insurgents and beginning to trust U.S. troops.

As the AP went on to report:

"The more contact we have (with) the Iraqi citizens, the more confidence that they develop in us, and in the Iraqi police and the Iraqi army. That leads to greater cooperation from the Iraqi citizenry," said Lt. Col. Christopher Garver, a U.S. military spokesman.

Meanwhile, as the AP goes on to report:

...in Kut, 100 miles southeast of Baghdad, 70 police officers resigned from an elite police unit and handed over their weapons, saying they were afraid of the Mahdi Army militia of the radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, police said.

As one officer told the AP: "I fear reprisals, I want to keep my family and relatives safe."

Missing American soldier in Iraq

Copyright Susan Opton

Iraqslogger reports:

Photographer Suzanne Opton says she wanted to capture the faces of people who had seen things that were unforgettable when she did a series of portraits of soldiers at Fort Drum three years ago.

One of them was [Specialist] Alex Jiminez, [25,] one of four soldiers declared missing in Iraq this week - captured or killed after an attack on their humvees south of Baghdad.

As the New York Times reported two days ago:

The area south of Baghdad where [the alleged abduction of the] soldiers occurred, known as the “triangle of death,” has been perpetually difficult for the American military to control.

As Sheik Ali al-Hatim, the leader of the Dulaimi tribe in Mahmudiya, told the Times:

“A number of parties are involved in this — Al Qaeda and other militias,” he said. “The situation in the area where the incident took place is very dangerous. Al Qaeda has been knocking on people’s doors and telling them that their sons between the ages of 20 and 30 must join their organization.” He said the Americans have detained at least 50 people in the search.

Well at least we know why the locals aren't being very helpful to the Americans.

More evidence that Al Qaeda is losing its base in Iraq

Time Magazine reports:

Al-Qaeda has lost its most powerful friend in Iraq: Harith al-Dari, the country's most influential Sunni cleric and a prominent anti-American figure, has rejected al-Qaeda's vision of an Islamic state, telling TIME that Iraqis "will not accept such a system." In a sharp departure from his long-standing view of the terror group, al-Dari now says al-Qaeda has "gone too far." He also repudiates recent statements on Iraq by Osama bin Laden's deputy, saying: "Ayman al-Zawahiri doesn't represent Iraqis."

Of course this doesn't mean that he's suddenly fallen in love with the "U.S. occupation" as Time characterizes it - or the Shiite-led Iraqi government.

Now who exactly is this guy? U.S. military commanders told Time al-Dari "is the spiritual head of the insurgency, and [they] accuse his son Muthanna of personally commanding a deadly terror group known as the Brigades of the 1920 Revolution (named after an anti-British uprising led by Harith al-Dari's grandfather)."

He's also the guy, Time goes on to report, that "has given religious sanction to some of the insurgency's more controversial tactics, such as kidnapping and killing foreigners, citing precedents from Islamic history."

So why the sudden change of heart? He told Time that the suicide bombings and attacks on civilians finally got to him.

But, as Time goes on to report, there may be a more personal motive here: Al Qaeda just happened to have murdered his nephew, a top commander of the Brigades, in March.

Hey, I'm just happy he finally figured out how despicable these guys are.