Al Qaeda's "stronghold" in Pakistan

Seems to be more myth than reality to me according to this report from the London Telegraph and all the other news I've seen lately. Anyway, let's see what we have here and you decide:

A deep split has emerged within al-Qa'eda over the wisdom of the terror network's drive to overthrow and kill Pakistan's president Pervez Musharraf, according to radical Pakistani Islamists allied to the terror network. . .

Osama bin Laden's deputy, Ayman al-Zawahiri, has ordered the series of retaliatory attacks on Pakistani targets that have followed the storming of the Red Mosque, an extremist stronghold in Islamabad, by Gen Musharraf's troops this month.

As the Telegraph reports, some 200 Pakistanis been killed as a result of the Egyptian doctor's revenge strikes. Now check this detail out:

Some senior figures within al-Qa'eda are alarmed that al-Zawahiri's mission to topple and kill Gen Musharraf will provoke a Pakistani military backlash that could jeopardise their safe havens in the mountainous tribal areas on the Afghan border.

A rival so-called "Libyan faction" led by Abu Yahya al-Libi, who escaped from the US Bagram base near Kabul in 2005, apparently suspects that al-Zawahiri, an Egyptian-born doctor, is trying to position himself as bin Laden's heir presumptive with his personal crusade. Bin Laden himself is believed to be in hiding, fearful of his whereabouts being discovered.

Do you see any Pakistanis yet on your radar screen? I mean aside from the victims of these Al Qaeda attacks? I know I don't. Now get this:

The US officials believe al-Zawahiri is running anti-Musharraf operations without consulting other leaders, hoping to foment a revolt that will result in an Islamic regime taking control of Pakistan's nuclear weapons. They are investigating reports of other factions which want to consolidate their operating bases on the Pakistan-Afghan border.

"Hoping to foment a revolt" - you got that? Zawahiri is hoping he can get some Pakistanis rallied to his fight. Now check out this passage:

The high stakes were brought home by a new US National Intelligence Estimate this month. The report concluded that a resurgent al-Qa'eda, now based in Pakistan's lawless tribal belt, has regained the same strength and organisation as before the September 11, 2001 attacks that prompted the US assault that drove it from Afghanistan.

The "same strength and organization"? Let's recap for a second here. Bin Laden is no where to be found he's so scared (or so dead). Al Qaeda seems to be having some serious management problems. And the only Pakistanis anyone can say with certainty that are part of this Al Qaeda stronghold are the ones getting blown up - or having their kids menaced because Al Qaeda doesn't like girls going to school. Yeah, sure, same strength and organization alright.

Anyway, in case you were wondering what the intelligence genuises in the U.S. suggest doing, this is what the Telegraph found:

US intelligence has repeated warnings to the White House that it is probably only a matter of time before al-Qa'eda stages another major attack inside the US, organised from its Pakistani strongholds. A significant faction inside the CIA wants the US to launch attacks within Pakistan to strike at al-Qa'eda now, without authorisation from Gen Musharraf.

Pakistani strongholds? Again, those places where they've been bombing and shooting up schools? Anybody ever hear of Anbar Province in Iraq?

I'd bet anything that the Pakistani tribals are a lot less stupid about Al Qaeda than these US intelligence agents seem to be. In fact, I give them as much credit as the Sunnis in Anbar - in Al Qaeda's other "stronghold."